Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
