A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
